The Determinants of Gini Coefficient in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Keywords: Gini coefficient , Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)


  • Mohsen Mehrara, Affiliation: Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;
  • Mojtaba Mohammadian, Affiliation: Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Pages:  20 : 28

This paper has tried to apply BMA approach in order to investigate important influential variables on Gini coefficient in Iran over the period 1976-2010. The results indicate that the GDP growth is the most important variable affecting the Gini coefficient and has a positive influence on it. Also the second and third effective variables on Gini coefficient are respectively the ratio of government current expenditure to GDP and the ratio of oil revenue to GDP which lead to an increase in inequality. This result is corresponding with rentier state theory in Iran economy. Injection of massive oil revenue to Iran's economy and its high share of the state budget leads to inefficient government spending and an increase in rent-seeking activities in the country. Economic growth is possibly a result of oil revenue in Iran economy which has caused inequality in distribution of income.

JEL classification:  H53, C01, I38