HYPERION ECONOMIC JOURNAL

Hyperion University of Bucharest
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HYPERION ECONOMIC JOURNAL

June 2019
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Combined Forecasts of Inflation Rate in Romania Using AFTER Algorithm

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Authors:
  • Mihaela Simionescu, Affiliation: Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania.
Pages:  32 : 37
Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to construct some combined predictions for the inflation rate in Romania, by using only the individual forecasts of two experts. The predictions provided during 2004-2014 were used in constructing the new forecasts. Several schemes of combination were employed: equally weighted scheme, a scheme with weights that weights depend on the inverse of averages square forecast errors and the Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting (AFTER) algorithm. The combined predictions based on these schemes improved the degree of accuracy of the forecasts made by the second expert during 2010-2013, but only an empirical combination based on the weights from 2009 improved also the first expert predictions for inflation rate in Romania.

JEL classification:  C60, E31

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