Analysis of Inflation and Economic Policies in Romania after 2020
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| Pages: | 91 : 101 |
| Abstract: | This paper examines inflation in Romania during the 2020–2025 period and interprets its trajectory through the interplay of external shocks, domestic propagation mechanisms, and economic policy. The analysis utilizes average annual rates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), supplemented by documents from the National Bank of Romania and assessments by international institutions. Three distinct regimes are identified: the acceleration associated with the economic reopening and the energy crisis, the disinflation of 2023–2024, and the re-acceleration in 2025 driven by changes in administered prices and indirect taxation. Descriptive results indicate a persistent positive differential relative to the European Union average and a substantial cumulative rise in price levels. The analytical contribution lies in distinguishing the initial impulse from persistence mechanisms and separately evaluating monetary stability, fiscal sustainability, and the protection of purchasing power. Causal relationships are discussed as mechanisms supported by economic literature and institutional evidence, rather than being presented as original econometric estimates. It is argued that sustainable disinflation requires the anchoring of expectations, credible fiscal consolidation, and measures to reduce supply-side vulnerabilities. Data for 2026 serve a contextual purpose and are not conflated with the complete annual series. |
| JEL classification: | E31, E52, E62 |
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E31, E52, E62
